Re: Teleporter problem

[Robert <http://dummy.us.eu.org/robert>]

 > From: Alex  <http://www.gmail.com/~alex.>
 > Date: Sat, 2 Jul 2016 12:18:48 -0700
 >
 > I've been trying to think about it from a statistics perspective. Tell me
 > if this sounds right.
 > Assume you use it twice a day, every day, for 5 years. Your probability of
 > survival by the end of 5 years is 0.999^(2*365*5)=0.0259437066=2.59%
 > People were saying that this is incorrect so I'm a little uncertain.

With these kinds of problems, you have to draw out the tree with all the
outcomes, with positive and negative outcomes.  That's the only way you
can determine the probability.  (My intuition also says that you're wrong,
that the probabilities are not dependent but are instead independent.)

 >  > From: Alex  <http://www.gmail.com/~alex.>
 >  > Date: Sat, 2 Jul 2016 09:42:51 -0700
 >  >
 >  > I recently found this question online and have been trying to justify my
 >  > answer. I'm curious as to your take on it.
 >  >
 >  > You have a portable teleportation machine that is proven to work flawlessly
 >  > 99.9% of the time. The other 0.1% of the time: instant death. Do you ever
 >  > use it to transport yourself? Why or why not?
 > 
 > I probably would use it if I needed to -- like an asteroid hurdling
 > towards earth or something, or other eminent death situation.