> From: Heather Howard <http://www.gmail.com/~hhoward40> > Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2019 10:52:52 -0700 > > Robert, do you agree with these signs? 1. The problem with looking at the unemployment rate is that so many people are on the side-lines that it's hard to tell what the true unemployment rate is. So, it's possible that we already have a very high unemployment rate; in which case, the economy isn't doing that great already. I'll know that the unemployment rate is really low when Gail gets a job 😉. 2. Yeah, the inverted yield curve definitely indicates that a recession is coming within the next 4 to 20 months. 3. Agree about the manufacturing index, consumer sentiment, and other indicators. 4. What's missing from this list is business inventory and purchasing. That has definitely declined, and I think this is what has hurt my company the most recently. It's probably a weak indicator in comparison with the other ones, but combined with the other ones can indicate trouble. > From The New York Times: > > A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First. > > Economists don’t know when the decade-long expansion, now the longest in > American history, will end. But here are the indicators they will be watching > to figure it out. > > https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html