Re: COVID statistics article

[robert <http://dummy.us.eu.org/robert>]

 > From: Noelle <noelle>
 > Date: Fri, 5 Jun 2020 11:34:17 -0700 (PDT)
 >
 > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Jun05.html#item-8

The confidence interval is just a bell curve that's superimposed on the
(in this case) time-lapsed data.  So, when the author says that R0<1 for
Texas, but the confidence interval (usually, one chooses 90% confidence,
'tho I have used less in the past for my computer programs) is greater
than 1, then that means the range of R0 values can be below zero and
possibly higher than 2.  This means that the "error" is very high.

For example, when survey firms say a poll shows Biden with a 12% lead,
plus or minus 3 points, the "3" is the margin of error.  That's utilizing
the confidence interval -- same thing.

With a R0 above 0, that means that the disease is still spreading.  So, in
this case, depending on whether you're a cup half-full or half-empty
person, with a confidence interval above 1, that may or may not mean that
the disease is continuing to spread.

An explanation can be had at
https://www.simplypsychology.org/confidence-interval.html .