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Re: Douthat's Birthrate Obsession Launders White Nationalist Anxieties (fwd)
- To: noelle
- Subject: Re: Douthat's Birthrate Obsession Launders White Nationalist Anxieties (fwd)
- From: robert <http://dummy.us.eu.org/robert>
- Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2023 14:45:57 -0800
- Keywords: our-Oakland-cell-phone-number
Oh. He's a Republican. No wonder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Douthat
He's probably a big fan of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Buchanan .
> From: Noelle <noelle>
> Date: Tue, 7 Feb 2023 21:17:15 -0800 (PST)
>
> > From: FAIR<http://www.fair.org/~fair>
> > Date: Tue, 7 Feb 2023 15:44:33 +0000
> >
> > https://us20.campaign-archive.com/?e=6ed8ef48d7&u=e6457f9552de19bc603e65b9c&id=03eccafa60
> >
> > FAIR
> > View article on FAIR's website (
> > https://fair.org/home/douthats-birthrate-obsession-launders-white-nationalist-anxieties/
> > )
> > Douthat's Birthrate Obsession Launders White Nationalist Anxieties Julie
> > Hollar (
> > https://fair.org/home/douthats-birthrate-obsession-launders-white-nationalist-anxieties/
> > )
> >
> > Ross Douthat confesses (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/opinion/sunday/fertility-population-baby-bust.html
> > ) to having an obsession with the so-called "baby bust." The New
> > York Times columnist has brought up the supposed perils of low birthrates in
> > countless columns (e.g., 12/14/22 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/abortion-america.html) , 3/27/21 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/opinion/sunday/fertility-population-baby-bust.html
> > ) , 12/2/12 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/opinion/sunday/douthat-the-birthrate-and-americas-future.html
> > ) ), and it played a prominent role in his 2020 book The
> > Decadent Society.
> > NYT: How Does a Baby Bust End?
> >
> > In Ross Douthat's imagining (New York Times, 3/27/21 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/opinion/sunday/fertility-population-baby-bust.html
> > ) ) of different ways "the developed world" can "stop growing
> > ever-older," the words "immigration" and "immigrants" never appears.
> >
> > Many would argue that a declining birthrate is a good thing. It follows when
> > childhood mortality rates decrease, and economic security and women's rights
> > increase. And fewer people on the planet—particularly in fossil
> > fuel-guzzling countries like ours—means less pressure on the Earth's
> > natural resources.
> >
> > But in his most recent return to the subject, Douthat (1/21/23 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/21/opinion/aging-climate-change-demographics.html
> > ) ) argues that such folks have it all backwards:
> >
> > There are two kinds of people in the world: those who believe the defining
> > challenge of the 21st century will be climate change, and those who know
> > that it will be the birth dearth, the population bust, the old age of the
> > world.
> >
> > That's a boldly certain statement from someone without any particular
> > expertise in either climate science or demography, and it flies in the face
> > of repeated assertions of the urgency of the climate crisis from global (
> > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/human-society-under-urgent-threat-loss-earth-natural-life-un-report
> > ) experts (
> > https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/) .
> >
> > But Douthat explains—citing Roger Pielske, Jr., who's been called the "
> > single most disputed and debunked person in the science blogosphere" (
> > Climate Progress, 3/3/14 (
> > https://web.archive.org/web/20170525231750/https://thinkprogress.org/obama-science-advisor-john-holdren-schools-political-scientist-roger-pielke-on-climate-and-drought-22af33f619d1
> > ) )—that "some of the worst-case scenarios for
> > climate change have become less likely (
> > https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25734211-000-the-worst-case-climate-scenarios-are-no-longer-plausible-today/
> > ) than before." Meanwhile, Covid
> > pushed birth rates down faster; therefore, the baby bust takes the crown in
> > this competition you didn't know was being waged.
> >
> > To support his claim, Douthat names the threats to "rich and many
> > middle-income nations": "general sclerosis, a loss of dynamism and
> > innovation, and a zero-sum struggle between a swollen retired population and
> > the overburdened young." In other words, a population decline in these
> > countries would be bad for the economy, and bad for the quality of life of
> > either the old or the young.
> >
> > Frankly, that sounds like a lot less of a "defining challenge" than current
> > scientific concerns that "even less-than-extreme increases in global
> > temperatures will intensify heat and storms, irreversibly destabilize
> > natural systems and overwhelm even highly developed societies" (Washington
> > Post, 1/6/23 (
> > https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/06/climate-change-scenarios-extremes/
> > ) ).
> >
> > And, of course, poorer countries will fare even worse from climate
> > disruption. That Douthat believes—sorry, "knows"—that economic
> > stagnation in middle- and upper-income countries is a more dire threat than
> > destabilized natural systems that could overwhelm all societies, but
> > disproportionately impact poor ones (not to mention nonhuman species),
> > offers your first clue that behind Douthat's birthrate obsession lurks
> > something much more tied to right-wing nativism than he will ever openly
> > admit.
> >
> > ** 'Rules' for an 'aging world'
> > ------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > First, it's highly debatable that a population bust is even an economic
> > problem—and it's certainly not an unsolvable one. As economist Dean Baker (
> > CEPR.net, 1/17/23 (
> > https://cepr.net/paul-krugman-chinas-demographic-crisis-and-the-which-way-is-up-problem-in-economics/
> > ) ) points out, Japan's population has been
> > decreasing for more than 10 years, yet its standard of living continues to
> > grow. Baker argues that increasing productivity can offset demographic
> > changes, and that governments have many other economic policy tools to deal
> > with such changes successfully, just like Japan has done.
> >
> > Meanwhile, the costs of climate change already total an estimated $2
> > trillion since 1980 in the United States alone, and are estimated (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-economy.html) to
> > reach upwards of $23 trillion globally by 2050. Small island nations face
> > the steepest challenges: The IMF estimates (
> > https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change
> > ) that they will endure
> > costs of up to 20% of their GDP for the next 10 years. And developed nations
> > consistently fail to meet the targets scientists say are necessary to stave
> > off the worst outcomes. So, really, which is the more certain crisis?
> > NYT: Five Rules for an Aging World
> >
> > Douthat's "rules for an aging world" (New York Times, 1/21/23 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/21/opinion/aging-climate-change-demographics.html
> > ) ) read like a right-wing wish list.
> >
> > But assuming the primacy of a population decline "crisis" conveniently
> > offers Douthat a springboard to ignore urgent climate policies and instead
> > promote several policies from the conservative wish list. In his recent
> > Times column (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/21/opinion/aging-climate-change-demographics.html
> > ) , he offered some of these in the form of "rules" for this "aging
> > world." Too many old people? Trim their entitlements. Not enough innovation?
> > Clear away pesky regulatory hurdles.
> >
> > Douthat's third rule—"Ground warfare will run up against population limits"
> > —is exactly what you fear it sounds like: "Vladimir Putin’s mobilization
> > efforts aren’t what they presumably would be if his empire had more young
> > people." That's right, one of the problems with the so-called population
> > bust is that there won't be enough bodies to sacrifice to hawkish
> > governments' military adventures.
> >
> > Rule Four is where it starts to get even more interesting. That rule,
> > according to Douthat, is that countries with higher birthrates will have "a
> > long-term edge" over the others. (Notice he's concerned with birthrates
> > specifically here, not just population growth rates. I'll come back to that
> > in just a minute.)
> >
> > This takes us to Rule Five: "The African Diaspora will reshape the world."
> > Here Douthat offers up a curious fact: "Africa’s population is still on
> > track to reach 2.5 billion in 2050, and reach 4 billion by 2100." But wait!
> > If the population of Africa, which currently stands at about 1.4 billion (
> > https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224168/total-population-of-africa/) ,
> > could nearly triple by the end of the century, do we really have a
> > population bust on our hands?
> >
> > ** No global 'birth dearth'
> > ------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > You wouldn't know it from Douthat's incessant hand-wringing, but the human
> > population isn't projected (
> > https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/population-growth-rate) to
> > start shrinking for another 54 years. Before then, it's expected to grow
> > from just over 8 billion today to nearly 10-and-a-half billion, due to
> > continued growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
> >
> > In other words, there is no global "birth dearth," the planet is not in an "
> > age of demographic decline," and we are not experiencing "the old age of the
> > world"—all phrases he uses in this column—unless you erase a large chunk
> > of that world, which just so happens to be a predominantly Black and
> > one.
> >
> > The global population continues to swell, which means that even if we
> > believed the argument that a country with a declining population will suffer
> > economically, there's a straightforward solution to that problem (assuming
> > you're not interested in forcing women to bear more children—which,
> > notably, Douthat is (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/opinion/abortion-america.html) ) that
> > would immediately kick the can down the road a good 50 years, something no
> > serious person believes can be done with climate change. That solution is to
> > welcome more of the many migrants seeking entry to such countries, who are
> > instead largely demonized, criminalized and denied their basic human rights.
> >
> > But Douthat doesn't see those Black and migrants as solutions. If "
> > even a fraction of this population" migrates, he warns ominously,
> >
> > the balance between successful assimilation on the one hand, and
> > destabilization and backlash on the other, will help decide whether the age
> > of demographic decline ends in revitalization or collapse.
> >
> > ** 'Fear of a Black continent'
> > ------------------------------------------------------------
> > NYT: Fear of a Black Continent
> >
> > Truth be told, Douthat himself (New York Times, 10/20/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/opinion/europe-africa-immigration-macron-birthrates.html
> > ) ) seems plenty worried about African babies.
> >
> > Lest you think that by including the possibility of "revitalization" in
> > there, Douthat is somehow signaling an openness to such migration, a look
> > back at other columns he's written about immigration will quickly dispel
> > that notion.
> >
> > In Europe, he argued (10/1/22 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/opinion/uk-liz-truss-conservatism-europe.html
> > ) ):
> >
> > The preferred centrist solution to both economic stagnation and demographic
> > diminishment, mass immigration, has contributed to Balkanization, crime and
> > native backlash—even in a progressive bastion like Sweden.
> >
> > He was even more blunt in a column (10/20/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/opinion/europe-africa-immigration-macron-birthrates.html
> > ) ) headlined "Fear of a Black Continent"—subtitled "Why
> > European elites are worrying about African babies." In it, Douthat warned of
> > the dangers of increasing African migration to Europe, but said that
> > attempts to slow the African birthrate would be "cruel"—so, instead,
> > anyone who hopes for something other than destabilization and disaster from
> > the Eurafrican encounter should hope for a countervailing trend, in which
> > Europeans themselves begin to have more children.
> >
> > If that sounds eugenics-like, it's because it is. Concerns about
> > differential birth rates were common (
> > https://academic.oup.com/florida-scholarship-online/book/29021/chapter-abstract/241403747?redirectedFrom=fulltext
> > ) in the early 20th century
> > anti-immigrant eugenics movement; Teddy Roosevelt famously blamed "American"
> > women who chose not to have children for "race suicide (
> > http://eugenicsarchive.ca/discover/tree/535eedb87095aa0000000250
> > ) " in the context of record levels of immigration. Douthat never describes
> > dark-skinned immigrants as inferior, but he does repeatedly paint them as a
> > threat linked to crime, distrust, destabilization and disaster.
> >
> > In a column (11/6/16 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/opinion/sunday/the-post-familial-election.html
> > ) ) crediting Donald Trump's rise to white families not having enough
> > children (which he in turn blames on the "social revolutions of the 1970s"),
> > Douthat suggested that "mass immigration…exacerbates intergenerational
> > alienation, because it heightens anxieties about inheritance and loss." Read:
> > Old white people who don't have at least 4.4 grandchildren worry they have
> > no legacy in an increasingly diverse country.
> >
> > While this is no doubt true to a certain extent, blaming the "ethno-racial
> > anxiety" of white Republicans on immigration and women's rights gives a big
> > fat get-out-of-jail-free card to misogynists and nativists like Trump who
> > stoke those bigotries.
> >
> > ** White anxiety
> > ------------------------------------------------------------
> > NYT: The Necessity of Stephen Miller
> >
> > Making the right seem respectable is Douthat's main job at the New York
> > Times (1/27/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/27/opinion/immigration-stephen-miller.html/)
> > )—and that means making white nationalists, who play such a large part in
> > the modern right, respectable too.
> >
> > In fact, in another eyebrow-raising column (1/27/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/27/opinion/immigration-stephen-miller.html/)
> > ), Douthat even urged Democrats to give a seat at the immigration policy
> > table to Trump adviser Stephen Miller, architect of Trump's barbaric and
> > unconstitutional family separation policy (
> > https://fair.org/home/child-separation-coverage-focused-on-beltway-debate-not-immigrant-voices/
> > ) . Douthat concluded that it's "reasonable" to want, like
> > Miller, to reduce immigration, because "increased diversity and the distrust
> > it sows have clearly put stresses on our politics."
> >
> > Douthat tried to draw a distinction between immigration restrictionists who
> > are "influenced by simple bigotry," and the "real restrictionists" like
> > Miller (who presumably have nobler motivations, like opposing "increased
> > diversity"). Comprehensive immigration reform has failed, according to
> > Douthat, because immigration advocates have insisted on excluding people
> > like Miller from the table, thinking
> > that restrictionists can eventually be steamrolled—that the same ethnic
> > transformations that have made white anxiety acute will eventually bury
> > white-identity politics with sheer multiethnic numbers.
> >
> > Here's your friendly reminder that Miller is a white supremacist who sent
> > hundreds of emails to Breitbart News (Southern Poverty Law Center, 11/12/19 (
> > https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2019/11/12/stephen-millers-affinity-white-nationalism-revealed-leaked-emails#policies
> > ) ) promoting
> > white nationalist websites, a "white genocide"–themed novel in which
> > Indian men rape white women, xenophobic conspiracy theories and eugenics-era
> > immigration laws that Adolf Hitler lauded in Mein Kampf.
> >
> > Nationalist opposition to "mass immigration" doesn't have to be racist,
> > Douthat (7/8/17 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/opinion/sunday/the-west-and-what-comes-after.html
> > ) ) argued elsewhere:
> >
> > It can just be a species of conservatism, which prefers to conduct cultural
> > exchange carefully and forge new societies slowly, lest stability suffer,
> > memory fail and important things be lost.
> >
> > What are those important things, exactly? Douthat made his ideal—and
> > disappearing—society clear in a paean to WASP rule (12/5/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/george-bush-wasps.html) ) upon
> > the death of George H.W. Bush. In that (also roundly (
> > https://www.salon.com/2018/12/10/new-york-times-ross-douthat-longs-to-restore-the-white-elite-yet-pretends-to-oppose-trump/
> > ) criticized (
> > https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-not-to-mourn-the-aristocracy
> > ) ) column, headlined "Why We Miss the WASPs," he wrote:
> >
> > Americans miss Bush because we miss the WASPs — because we feel, at
> > some level, that their more meritocratic and diverse and secular successors
> > rule us neither as wisely nor as well.
> >
> > NYT: Why We Miss the WASPs
> >
> > Douthat (New York Times, 12/5/18 (
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/george-bush-wasps.html) ) says "
> > we" miss the white Anglo-Saxon Protestant elite because "a ruling class
> > should acknowledge itself for what it really is, and act accordingly."
> >
> > No matter that they were also "bigoted and exclusive and often cruel"—
> > after all,
> >
> > for every Brahmin bigot there was an Arabist or China hand or Hispanophile
> > who understood the non-American world better than some of today’s shallow
> > multiculturalists.
> >
> > That column, notably, drew on the same concept of "trust" he routinely
> > brings up in his arguments against immigration. Douthat argued that the
> > ruling WASPs "inspired various kinds of trust (intergenerational,
> > institutional) conspicuously absent in our society today." It's not clear
> > what kind of trust Douthat imagines this white ruling class, constructed on
> > a foundation of slavery, inspired in Black and Americans. More likely,
> > Douthat is incapable of imagining the experiences of such Americans. Bush (
> > https://theintercept.com/2018/12/01/the-ignored-legacy-of-george-h-w-bush-war-crimes-racism-and-obstruction-of-justice/
> > ) himself rode to victory on the
> > infamously racist Willie Horton ad, and escalated the racist "war on drugs,"
> > damaging social cohesion in ways immigration can scarcely dream of.
> >
> > Douthat seems to want to believe that racism and sexism were incidental to
> > WASP power rather than fundamental to its rise and maintenance. That you can
> > defend a white nationalist and advocate modern-day positive eugenics without
> > bearing any responsibility for racist, xenophobic extremism. If we were to
> > take Douthat's advice to ignore the climate crisis and pursue high birth
> > rates in developed countries, we would increase the stress on the imperiled
> > planet for no clear purpose—other than trying desperately to keep the
> > world as white as possible.