Re: Japan Facing Nightmare Scenario of Longer Lives, Low Unemployment, Less Crowding (fwd)

[robert <http://dummy.us.eu.org/robert>]

 > From: Noelle <noelle>
 > Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2019 16:36:45 -0700 (PDT)
 >
 > OMG!

We already knew that Robert Samuelson has had strange ideas.

 >  > Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2019 22:49:08 +0000
 >  > From: "FAIR" <http://www.fair.org/~fair>
 >  > 
 >  > FAIR
 >  > 
 >  > Japan Facing Nightmare Scenario of Longer Lives, Low Unemployment, Less 
 >  > Crowding
 >  > 
 >  > view post on FAIR.org 
 >  > https://fair.org/home/japan-facing-nightmare-scenario-of-longer-lives-low-unemployment-less-crowding/?awt_l=JgWCG&amp;awt_m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ
 >  > WaPo: If you want a peek at the future, try looking at Japan. You may  not 
 >  > like what you see.
 >  > 
 >  > Or, well, you might. How do you feel about living to 107?
 >  > 
 >  > by Dean Baker
 >  > 
 >  > Oh no, Japan is running out of people!
 >  > 
 >  > That’s what Robert Samuelson 
 >  > 
 >  > https://fair.org/home/robert-samuelsons-golden-age-mythology-2/?awt_l=JgWCG&amp;awt_m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ
 >  > tells us in his latest column ( Washington Post , 6/12/19 
 >  > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&amp;m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&amp;b=F3W81_zgtKLDT0yDHjEqwA
 >  > ). That might seem a strange concern for a country that is ten times as 
 >  > densely populated as the United States, but Samuelson apparently sees it as 
 >  > a real nightmare.
 >  > 
 >  > After all, if its population keeps shrinking, Japan will face a severe 
 >  > labor shortage. They may have a hard time getting people to fill 
 >  > lower-paying, lower-productivity jobs. For example, it might be hard to 
 >  > find workers to shove people 
 >  > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&amp;m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&amp;b=s1WFGLmlLGNhD4.B1rzgtA
 >  > onto Toyko’s overcrowded subways.
 >  > 
 >  > But it gets worse. As a result of the social services required by the 
 >  > elderly, Japan has been running large deficits and built up an enormous 
 >  > debt:
 >  >     
 >  >      The mounting deficit spending has in turn ballooned Japan’s 
 >  >      government debt 
 >  >      
 >  >      https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&amp;m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&amp;b=0lbboUBT7PqK9vsRGH_TaQ
 >  >      to 226 percent of GDP—”the highest ever recorded in the OECD 
 >  >      area” and roughly twice the US level.
 >  > 
 >  > Yes, and the burden of this debt is absolutely crushing to the Japanese 
 >  > people. According to the IMF 
 >  > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&amp;m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&amp;b=Y5skiwmPkp0tpPbq1xTehw ,
 >  > Japan’s debt service burden will be equal to 0.1 percent of GDP this 
 >  > year, which is equal to roughly $20 billion in the US economy. And if the 
 >  > country continues on its current course, its debt service burden will turn 
 >  > negative in two years.
 >  > 
 >  > The issue here is that Japan has negative (nominal) interest rates. Lenders 
 >  > pay the Japanese government to borrow their money. As a result, the 
 >  > interest burden on Japan’s “highest ever recorded” debt is no burden 
 >  > whatsoever.
 >  > 
 >  > But wait, it gets worse. Samuelson tells us (citing economist Timothy 
 >  > Taylor):
 >  >     
 >  >      Half of Japanese children born in 2007 
 >  >      https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&amp;m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&amp;b=0lbboUBT7PqK9vsRGH_TaQ
 >  >      are expected to live to 107.
 >  > 
 >  > As we can see, the situation in Japan is pretty bad. Samuelson warns us 
 >  > that it could be our future, too, which I suppose might be possible if we 
 >  > fix our healthcare system.
 >  > 
 >  > Samuelson and his clique really need to do a better job of finding a 
 >  > bogeyman.